Islamist militants likely to target nations backing Israel: analysts
U.S. and other Western countries at risk of attacks on their soil, experts say
KUALA
LUMPUR -- The U.S. and other nations backing Israel "should anticipate"
militant attacks on their soil and assets abroad as the Jewish state
launches deadly airstrikes on Gaza in response to a large-scale,
surprise assault at the weekend, experts warn.
On Tuesday, U.S. President Joe Biden expressed support for Israel as he denounced Hamas for the "sheer evil" of an attack that has reportedly killed 1,200 people in Israel with dozens more taken hostage by the militants -- designated a terror group by the U.S. and some other Western nations.
Israel's retaliatory airstrikes on the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip have killed at least 950 people, including children, according to the health ministry there, as buildings were reduced to rubble inside the densely-packed enclave of 2 million people.
Benny Mamoto, a counterterrorism expert and a former official with Indonesia's police counterterrorism agency Densus88, said the unfolding violence could spread well beyond the contested region.
"[Militant groups] will look at the response of countries whom they think are pro-Israel. When there is a statement of support, they will become a target," said Mamoto, adding that such nations should be vigilant to any threat. "Their targets [would] include symbols of a particular country like embassies as well as its national interests like hotels, businesses, citizens and government officials. ...This is what I discovered during my time interrogating terrorist detainees."
While Southeast Asian nations may largely be spared, Indonesia is taking no chances despite its long-held support for an independent Palestinian state.
On Thursday, the world's biggest Muslim majority nation marks the 21st anniversary of the 2002 Bali bombings, which killed 202 people from nearly two dozen countries on the holiday island. Indonesia's deadliest terror attack was carried out by al-Qaida-linked Jemaah Islamiyah in what it called retaliation for the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan.
The group went on to launch other attacks in Indonesia, including the 2003 car bombing at Jakarta's Marriot Hotel and a bombing at the Australian Embassy the following year.
Asked whether Indonesian police were on alert given the Israel-Hamas conflict and Bali bombings anniversary, Marthinus Hukom, the Densus 88 commander, told Nikkei: "That is for sure."
Aswin Siregar, a Densus spokesman, said the counterterrorism squad is always "monitoring the global situation" and evaluating "potential threats" linked to Middle East tensions.
Indonesian Islamist groups called for Muslims to protest outside the U.S. Embassy in Jakarta on Wednesday in defense of Palestinians and to oppose Israel, which does not have official diplomatic relations with Indonesia.
In a weekend statement posted to chat app Telegram, Hamas called on "the resistance fighters in the West Bank" as well as "our Arab and Islamic nations" to join the battle against Israel.
The shock Hamas attacks may "inspire" Indonesian Islamists to keep fighting to overthrow the government as they highlight the fallibility of Israel's powerful security services and Indonesia's far weaker military capabilities, said Damai Setianing Ilahi, a researcher at the Jakarta-based Center for Radicalism and Deradicalization Studies (PAKAR).
But while Islamists in Southeast Asia generally support Palestinian statehood and are calling for donations to help Gaza residents, they are likely to focus on a quest to carve out regional Islamic caliphates rather than joining a fight overseas, analysts said.
"There are stark differences between the ultimate aims of Hamas and militant groups in Southeast Asia," said a regional security source, speaking on condition of anonymity. "They are fighting for different causes."
Sofyan Tsauri, a former member of al-Qaida's Southeast Asian affiliate, said pro-al-Qaida groups celebrated the Hamas attacks on extremist websites, but that Islamic State group-linked organizations oppose Hamas because it receives funding from Shiite Iran. Sunni Muslims consider Shiites to be apostates.
"These groups view Hamas' attacks against Israel with cynicism and don't view Hamas as a warrior," said PAKAR's Ilahi. "[Islamic State] supporters see Hamas' fight against Israel as apostates versus infidels [Israel] and crusaders [Christians and the U.S.]"
While scores of Southeast Asian militants went to Syria to fight alongside the Islamic State, few are likely to see battling the Israeli army from Gaza as a winning cause, the security source said.
"Given the compact size of the battlefield and the kind of arsenal they are facing from enemy forces, it is a different ballgame altogether," the source added.